in the end, obama wins that state by two or three points. host: i want to put on the screen what is happening in colorado, alabama, north carolina. the number of votes cast as of yesterday. in colorado, 1.5 million votes cast. 35% for democrats, 37% republicans. in iowa, just over 500,800 cast. 43% democratic and 32% republican. guest: you are seeing a shift. same thing for florida. the last election, they had almost a 10 point advantage in terms of the early vote. all of the big statewide papers for mitt romney changed the dynamic and tipped it in the direction of romney. host: the other states are nevada, north carolina, and ohio. in nevada, 627,000 early votes castle far. for democrats, 48% and four republicans, 32%. in ohio, 1.3 million early votes cast. 29% for the democrats and 23% for republicans. guest: ohio is hard to judge. you need to look more at demographics and area rather than partisanship. colorado is looking pretty decent for the republicans. north carolina is looking decent for the republicans. iowa is looking good for the